The Elusive 4th iPhone
If like me you're a millennial nearing (or already past) 30, you have seen Apple fork the road of iPhone some times before.
In the beginning Apple would release a single new model. That was true from 2007, the year of the very first 2G model, to 2012 with the beautifully thin iPhone 5. But in 2013 the company released for the first time 2 new iPhones instead of a single model. These were the iPhone 5c and the iPhone 5s. Tim Cook's company started the separation of premium vs. regular new phones that Apple keeps to this day - allowing them to compete at the most-people-will-buy "regular" phone price of 500 to 600 dollars while slowly increasing the price for each year's de facto new iPhone.
2014 through 2017 saw the event of the Plus models (6, 7 and 8 Plus). These were bigger screened (and eventually more camera-ed) versions of the thing people got used to calling an iPhone (thank you for your services, Home button) and that was still being sold in its normal size. People loved them.
Cut to 2019 and Apple for the first time more cleanly defines this separation with the Pro name (iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro/Pro Max).
But in the following year Apple would begin its search for a 4th model (iPhone SE and 16e users, I love you, but we're keeping the cheaper models out of this discussion for simplicity's sake). In 2020 Apple introduced a sleek new iPhone, with flat edges like the iPhones 4 and 5 years before, and - in a playful nudge to the iPhone 3G intro and spy movies - a smaller version of that same phone taken out of a metal suitcase: the iPhone 12 mini saw the light of day.
Since then, Apple has been - for god knows why 💰💵🤑 - looking for a 4th top tier model of its phone. They tried a small phone - which didn't sell. They re-tried the Plus formula, this time as a not-as-expensive option to the Pro Max. This one, once again, didn't sell to the numbers Apple expected, the fact of it being price squeezed on both sides by the regular and Pro models pointed as the major existential threat.
In 2025, after many rumors, they did it once more, this time betting on a ultra thin model that doesn't even carry this year's line name: the iPhone Air.
The 4th iPhone timeline
2020 - iPhone 12 mini
2021 - iPhone 13 mini
2022 - iPhone 14 Plus
2023 - iPhone 15 Plus
2024 - iPhone 16 Plus
2025 - iPhone Air
Cupertino's problem is that this goose chase keeps eluding the biggest corporation in the world. There doesn't seem to be a place for a 4th top of the line iPhone - at least not to the tune of sales the company expects. A recent report says iPhone Air production was cut by 80%. That's for a phone that just went on sale 2 months ago. My own anecdotal evidence of talking to store clerks in Brasil confirms this. The Air model is barely selling, beaten by the Pros by a factor of 20.
I have strong opinions on the reasons this time around - price, single camera, battery but mainly that terrible horrible single speaker - but the fact is Apple's 6th attempt at a kinda premium option is underperforming.
Should they keep trying? Well, they will - that's as sure as gravity - and my aim with this post is to both share and record this odd capitalist goose chase that allows us to laugh a little at the trials and tribulations of such a huge force. iPhone mini people still grieve its death and try to keep their beloved little pocket computers alive. I feel for them. Unfortunately Apple is not in the heart business - it's in the profit one - and until that 4th spot performs to their liking they will keep on trying.